RUN SHEET No. 008
October 25, 2026
By Hugh Mercer
October 25, 2026
adidas raises its outlook. HOKA slows. China’s running-shoe market splits. Shoppers question influencer marketing. And a culture read looks at the crews that helped make running social long before the current boom.
ADIDAS RAISES ITS PROFIT OUTLOOK TO €2.5 BILLION
adidas reported preliminary third-quarter revenue of €7.252 billion, up 9%, and operating profit of €1.008 billion, up 37%. It raised its full-year operating-profit forecast from €2.3 billion to €2.5 billion.
There is an important qualification: approximately €200 million in U.S. tariff refunds helped the quarter. The company also plans to reinvest about €100 million in the fourth quarter.
CEO Bjørn Gulden cited profitable growth in running, football and training, while warning about excess inventory and discounting in lifestyle footwear. No separate running-growth figure was disclosed. Final results arrive October 29.
Source: adidas announcement
HOKA GROWS, BUT DECKERS LOWERS THE SALES BAR
HOKA’s quarterly revenue increased 6.8% to $677.2 million. Deckers now expects high-single-digit full-year growth for the brand, while group DTC comparable sales fell 6.4%.
Tariff refunds also matter here: $0.28 of Deckers’ $2.31 diluted earnings per share came from that benefit. The company received $46 million in net refunds plus $3 million in interest during the quarter.
Read together, adidas and Deckers show why a stronger profit headline does not necessarily mean stronger consumer demand. The DTC decline is Deckers-wide, not a disclosed HOKA-only number.
Source: Deckers filing
CHINA’S RUNNING-SHOE DEMAND IS NOT LIFTING EVERY BRAND
Xtep’s October 23 update showed a mid-single-digit decline in its core brand’s third-quarter retail sell-through in mainland China. Retail discounts were 25–30%, with channel inventory turnover of 4.5–5 months.
Saucony moved in the opposite direction, posting mid-single-digit sell-through growth in the same market. That improved on its low-single-digit second-quarter growth.
The distinction is worth keeping: this is an uneven market, not evidence that every running brand is slowing together. These are unaudited mainland-China operating figures, not Saucony’s worldwide revenue.
Sources: Third-quarter filing · Second-quarter comparison
SHOPPERS ARE LESS IMPRESSED BY INFLUENCER PARTNERSHIPS
AlixPartners’ 2026 Consumer Sentiment Index surveyed more than 9,000 U.S. consumers. Among specialty shoppers, the share identifying influencer partnerships as a primary purchase driver fell from 40% to 27%, while unique collaborations rose from 21% to 31%.
That is a useful distinction for running apparel and footwear marketers: paying for a familiar face and creating a product people actually want are different propositions.
This is broader retail research, not a runner-only survey or proof that influencer campaigns no longer work. It does challenge the assumption that audience size alone is enough.
Source: AlixPartners report
CULTURE READ: THE RUN-CREW BOOM HAS A HISTORY
RunningCrews’ October 18 feature revisits Bridge The Gap and the international crew relationships that developed around running, music, nightlife and travel. Its author recounts attending the 2012 Berlin gathering, rather than presenting the movement as something invented by today’s social-media boom.
That history matters when brands talk about “building community.” Many of the relationships they want access to were built by runners themselves. The feature also acknowledges early brand involvement, avoiding the equally simplistic idea that crew culture developed entirely outside commerce.
A worthwhile culture read, not a new market-size study.
Source: Read the feature
WEEKEND RESULTS, BRIEFLY
Valencia: Rodrigue Kwizera won in 58:03, a Spanish record; Sheila Chepkirui won in 1:03:51. Our full story
Golden Trail: Elhousine Elazzaoui secured his third consecutive series title by two points over Patrick Kipngeno. Madalina Florea retained the women’s title. Official final report